Q1 2018
Mikey Z
Apex Ridge Caital
(Similar to my previous post)
As Q1 of the 2018 closes, we have to see any indicators of a reversal from the current bearish trend. The market cap has fallen below $250b and most alt coins have sustained greater than -50% losses. Despair and anger have spread across social media. As I stated last week on our Telegram channel, we can attribute the current market to numerous factors: Increased regulation from influential “crypto” nations. Social media sites have banned crypto related advertisements. Uncertainty with global markets; The FUD surrounding a trade war. Bad press; Bloomberg on BTC: “Fad is fading- for now.” News that hedge funds have begun shutting down. There are thoughts that tax season may also be affecting the values. The notion that the market is being manipulated in order to invite larger players. The cost of mining cryptocurrencies may not produce profits if the values decrease (depending on electricity costs). Investigations into fraudulent Blockchain companies deter new investors. There have even been threats to traders who operate paid channels.
There are inherent risks with volatile markets. Individual investors and many hedge funds failed to recognize this factor. With major gains, comes major losses. If we look at the past, BTC has experienced major retracements several times. After every bearish trend, BTC comes back and surpasses its all-time high. That’s the roller coaster ride we experience. Patience will be rewarded. I think we’ll experience a continuation of the current trend for 2-3 months. The market will not recover overnight. But this is not the 2014 bear market and here’s why. Blockchain technology is recognized and utilized on a much larger scale. We’re finding new ways to develop this innovative technology. The cryptocurrencies are needed to sustain this technology. In 2014, a very small percentage of people knew about Cryptocurrencies. At that time, BTC was exploited for its anonymity. More than 50% of people used BTC for nefarious activities. Today, less than 5% of BTC is used for nefarious transactions. It’s no longer considered Darknet money. Its considered more of an investment vehicle of a finite resource, like gold. Mass adoption and global acceptance will ensure this won’t be a 2-year bear market as it was in 2014. Billions of dollars have been invested in mining facilities. Institutional investors are standing on the sidelines, waiting for entry. We’ve heard rumors of multi billion-dollar OTC bids and there have been reports with major USDT buys. Cryptocurrencies will restore value; Restore and surpass in due time.
Our strategy into the second quarter: Although shorting Crypto can be very risky, it’s a strategy that can be used to reduce your dollar-cost average. Sell the news: The only Alts that are moving, are news related. Its best to be in and out with Alts. Turn profits into USD or BTC. Why BTC? Because it will be the first to recover. Simply HODL: if you sell the coin, you realize a loss. If you hold, you keep the same amount of coin regardless of the value. Average down: keep USD on the sidelines and set buys at decreasing values. And lastly, take profits when they become available. It’s important to stay positive and do your homework. Hard work will pay off.